Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 3.578101 4.273002 5.046918 5.969839 7.037433 8.230408 9.661127
2025-04-27 2.560789 3.490658 4.646598 6.175206 8.127723 10.521001 13.657013
2025-05-04 1.955958 2.988601 4.397793 6.427439 9.235267 12.936238 18.127241
2025-05-11 1.487283 2.519901 4.051253 6.427282 9.945705 14.873588 22.182761
2025-05-18 1.112821 2.079010 3.627321 6.198651 10.245548 16.224847 25.534144
2025-05-25 0.830789 1.705429 3.214184 5.883831 10.326802 17.215720 28.414596
2025-06-01 0.661516 1.480188 2.989507 5.814697 10.751541 18.730998 32.188701
2025-06-08 0.531820 1.293294 2.789069 5.740709 11.136608 20.195664 35.991255
2025-06-15 0.473006 1.234437 2.811788 6.063260 12.230328 22.906648 42.025001
2025-06-22 0.397073 1.117159 2.694685 6.097333 12.799952 24.771205 46.792996
2025-06-29 0.332467 1.007854 2.570925 6.093697 13.288851 26.525809 51.500454
2025-07-06 0.279119 0.910903 2.453601 6.080865 13.749936 28.259240 56.293275
2025-07-13 0.261871 0.907864 2.555340 6.562736 15.271220 32.114387 65.269475
2025-07-20 0.230096 0.855084 2.529760 6.761938 16.244634 35.038464 72.799505
2025-07-27 0.205663 0.816753 2.532522 7.026235 17.384456 38.379706 81.362217
2025-08-03 0.173739 0.743698 2.429671 7.022956 17.944143 40.626870 88.013623
2025-08-10 0.138908 0.647170 2.240672 6.774749 17.925868 41.705152 92.475701
2025-08-17 0.108169 0.551826 2.030846 6.433985 17.647081 42.211934 95.831855
2025-08-24 0.089942 0.497050 1.928580 6.359086 17.980864 44.026229 101.940526
2025-08-31 0.074715 0.447690 1.830897 6.279012 18.289531 45.806407 108.096669
2025-09-07 0.069843 0.443235 1.880660 6.627809 19.704032 50.118888 119.814638
2025-09-14 0.060166 0.411057 1.827470 6.664640 20.325341 52.702757 128.025658
2025-09-21 0.051315 0.378412 1.764353 6.660707 20.839168 55.080276 135.944248